The Hawks we've known for the past 10 years are gone. Only a few players remain from the 60 win team of 4 years ago. With so many question marks and unknowns going into the season, we take an in-depth look at the new faces on the roster, the schedule & what it could mean at the end of the season.
The Roster
The Atlanta Hawks return 7 players from last years 43 win team. The Hawks are trying to replace the production of Hardaway, Millsap & Howard which is 46 points per game, 23 rebounds per game & 7 assists per game. For a team that averaged 103 points per game (22nd/30), replacing 44% of your scoring will be a tall task. The most important man returning this year is Dennis Schroder. Seeing his development last year & culmination in the playoffs where he averaged 7 points and 1 assist more than in the regular season, gives a Hawks fan hope and optimism for the future. We also saw “Master Shredder’s” turnover per game go from 3 in the regular season to 1.7 in the playoffs. Something that is welcoming to see from a guy who will be the franchise player & face of the organization.
Schroder’s running mate, Kent Bazemore, will look to improve on his number from last year. Kent saw his production stay about the same, but the $15 million price tag the Hawks placed on him, left a lot to be desired. The 16-17 Bazemore saw his wins shared drop from 4.1 to 2.1 and his per 13.4 to 11.5. For a bench or support player, that Kent was in 15-16, these stats would’ve been acceptable and fine, but when you pay someone $15 Mil a year, you expect more. Although the numbers you would expect from a player getting paid that much weren’t there, the effort was. Through all the tumultuous times, Bazemore’s effort was always top notch. Rarely did he take plays off or have mental lapses. This is why I believe Baze will be the Hawks most improved player in the 17-18 campaign.
The 3rd player in the Hawks young frontcourt trio is Taurean Prince. After describing what a rebound is & getting drafted by the Hawks, Prince only received sporadic playing time. After only playing 10+ minutes in 12 of the first 54 games, Prince saw his playing time skyrocket in the last 28 games of the season where he only received less than 10 mins of playing time in 3 games. Taurean’s playing time and opportunities only expanded in the playoffs where he averaged 31 minutes per game, 11.2 points per game & 5.3 rebounds per game. At times, during a stagnant stretch of offensive ineptitude from the Hawks, Prince was the one bright spot in the playoffs. While others were standing and watching, Taurean was extremely active. Running the baseline & setting pick & rolls. If his activity and production in the playoffs are indicators for things to come, Taurean could turn out to be a very special player.
After the established 3 “stars”, there’s not much to be happy about on the Hawks 17-18 roster. Atlanta added rookies John Collins and Tyler Dorsey over the off-season. While both impressed during the NBA summer league, Collins in particular, both are untested against true NBA veterans. It’ll be interesting to see if either received significant minutes as coach Bud is notorious for bringing rookies along quite slowly. The Hawks also added veteran Marco Belinelli and arguably the most overpaid, under producing playing in the NBA: Miles Plumlee. Belinelli will be a rotational guard, but Plumlee’s role will be the most interesting. Bud prefers to use a 3 man rotation at the 4-5 position. Bud will have rookie John Collins, Dewayne Dedmon, Mike Muscala, Miles Plumlee to choose from. Newcomer Luke Babbitt & returning rotational player Ersan Ilyasova could also see minutes at the PF position. Malcolm Delaney and DeAndre’ Bembry will be rotational pieces that will mix in with the Hawks young backcourt. Both players saw productive summer leagues, but the production wasn’t anything to make you believe either will be more than 2nd team players for the Hawks 17-18 season
The Schedule
The Atlanta Hawks open up the season on a 5 game road trip that sees us pair up against Dwight in the 2nd game in Charlotte. The road trip won’t be too tough of a start as only 1 of the 5 teams made the playoffs last year. The Hawks should take 3 of the 5 and come into the home opener with the Nuggets and Paul Millsap with a winning record. Don’t get your hopes up too much for the home games to open the season as we take on The Greek Freak after the Nuggets. Dropping both games will get us to 3-4 on the season. The rest of the first 20 games sees us face the Celtics and Snek twice at home, the Houston Rockets come to town, as well as an away trip to Cleveland & San Antonio. The first 20 games aren’t easy, and it’s a lineup that could see the Hawks only massing 5-7 wins. 7-13 is my prediction for the 1st 20 minutes.
The 2nd group of 20 games are quite a bit easier than the 1st set of 20. We’ll see the Hawks host Cleveland, Washington & the Dallas Mavericks in what might be Dirk’s last game in Philips Arena. We have away games against the Thunder, Memphis & we’ll also get our 1st look at self-proclaimed MVP Lonzo Ball and the Lakers. This stretch sees the Hawks go 12-8 with a cumulative record of 19-21. For a team playing in the depleted East, this record could be good enough to sniff the 8th seed.
The 3rd set of 20 games in the Hawks 17-18 see the 1st 8 of the 11 games at home. This could be the stretch, if the Hawks are truly in the playoff hunt, could make a run. 5 of the 8 however made the playoffs last year. Despite the massive amount of home games. This stretch won’t be friendly. The schedule pairs this young Hawks team up with many playoff caliber teams that we simply won’t have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with. 6-14 seems likely, which will put the Hawks at 25-35 overall for the season.
The last 22 games of the season should be treated as an experiment for the 18-19 season. Dorsey, Muscala and Collins need to maximize their playing time to better assess what the Hawks will have coming into the next season. 50% of the last 22 games are on the road, 6 of which are a road trip that pairs the Hawks up against Milwaukee, Utah, Golden State, Houston & Minnesota. Luckily, home games against Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix & Charlotte could prevent the ending of the season to be completely embarrassing. 7-15 seems to be a reasonable assumption for the last 22 games, bringing the seasons overall record to 32-50. This would be the Hawks worst record since the 06-07 season which saw the Hawks lose 52 games.
The Expectations
After running through the roster and schedule, we can assume the expectations for the team this year is quite low. Vegas has set us as a +1400 to make it to the playoffs. What we want to see this year from the Hawks is a couple of things that won’t reap immediate rewards. First, we want to see the progression of Taurean and Schroeder. These guys are the future and face of the Hawks franchise and could turn out to be an amazing dangerous duo in the post-Lebron East next year when he goes to LA. Next, what will the rookies production do? Will Dorsey and Collins get enough playing time to impress and progress? Can Collins turn into and surpass the void Horford filled in Bud’s offense? Lastly, what will Bud do? Coach Bud never has been on a team poised to…...rebuild? Schlenk keeps repeating that the Hawks, “Are not tanking”, but I can’t see any other way to describe the 17-18 Hawks. Rebuild, retool, re-assess…..all of these are fancy words for TANK. In the NBA, you have to get worse to get better. So grab the bottle of Jack and settle in for a long season.
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